India is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, but slow income growth, lack of structural change, and rising inequality highlight the gap between progress and real transformation.
The new numbers show India's economic growth rate averaged 6.7 per cent during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance regime as compared to 7.3 per cent under the present government. Previous numbers had put the average growth rate during the 10-year UPA rule at 7.75 per cent.
In a paper, EAC-PM accused Subramanian of "cherry-picking high-frequency indicators" to express his skepticism about the growth rates after 2011-12.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
India's real GDP is expected to grow by 8.6 per cent this fiscal as compared to a growth of 8.5 per cent recorded in FY 11, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
Pakistan on Tuesday increased its defence budget by 20 per cent, allocating PRs. 2,550 billion ($9 billion) for the fiscal year 2025-26, amid tensions with India.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Impact of lack of significant investments in the last 4-5 years; inability of private sector to put in fresh capital with availing of loans becoming an issue due to rising NPAs of banks, along with demonetisation were mainly responsible for dampening growth, he said.
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The report further said that confidence is improving, while risk aversion is falling and has upgraded industrial production to neutral from negative.
India's first $1 trillion company by market capitalisation (mcap) is achievable by 2032 and HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) are seen as lead contenders, ICICI Securities said in a note on Monday. To achieve this, the shares of both the firms will have to appreciate at least 20 per cent annually for the next decade. ICICI Securities believes this is possible if India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerates to 9 per cent per annum and corporate profitability cycle peaks. "Our calculations suggest that India's first $1 trillion mcap stock could emerge by 2032.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI)Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said it was not the regulator's job to take decisions for bank boards, speaking in the context of the wide range of enabling reforms announced for lenders during the October monetary policy review, and emphasised that financial stability remained the regulator's focus.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
'I do believe there will be a resolution in the next couple of months on the penal tariff and hopefully on the reciprocal tariff also.'
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
The best course for the government at this time would be to tighten the seat belt a little more, without compromising on its investments in creating better infrastructure and giving a push to privatisation, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The Union Budget's focus on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment and push the GDP growth rate close to 7 per cent in the next financial year beginning April 1, said a Reserve Bank article on 'State of the Economy'. In 2023-24, capital expenditure is budgeted at Rs 10 lakh crore which will constitute 3.3 per cent of GDP. "We believe that India will decouple from macroeconomic projections of current vintage and also from the rest of the world.
The full year economic growth for the fiscal year 2012-13 came in at 5 per cent, in line with an official forecast given in February, but its worst in a decade, and a far cry from the 9 per cent annual expansion recorded until two years back.
India's economy grew 4.7 percent in 2013/14, marking a second straight year of sub-5 percent growth -- the worst slowdown in more than a quarter of a century.
India's economic growth could fall below 5 per cent.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
For growth sustain at these levels, private services need to recover.
India's economic growth rate rose to an impressive 8.2 per cent during financial year 2003-04 as against 3.7 per cent GDP growth registered in the previous fiscal.
Amazon will invest more than Rs 2,000 crore (about $233 million) in India in 2025 as it strengthens its logistics and safety standards, said the ecommerce company on Thursday.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the second wave of COVID infections poses downside risks to India's GDP and heightens the possibility of business disruptions. The second wave brings in uncertainty and a drawn-out COVID outbreak will impede India's recovery, it said.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
Investors must account for currency depreciation in their financial plans and use instruments that can cushion the erosion in purchasing power.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
Moody's said the government will face challenges in achieving its deficit target for the fiscal year ending March 2021, amid persistent structural and cyclical headwinds to growth.
India's GDP growth quickened to 7.4 per cent in the September.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday marginally revised upwards the economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent. Unveiling the first bi-monthly monetary policy of 2023-24 fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 is expected at 7.8 per cent.
The time is ideal for a 'Dream Budget' akin to the 1991 reforms that sparked high growth and unlocked significant gains in productivity, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
According to the World Bank, economic growth in middle-income countries, including India, is not accelerating. 'In fact, it is slowing down as incomes increase, with the trend becoming more pronounced each decade.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said it expects the economy to record positive growth in the second half of the current financial year.
HSBC cut its GDP forecast for the year ending in March to 5.2 per cent from 5.7 per cent, and its forecast for the next fiscal year to 6.2 per cent from 6.9 per cent, according to a report released on Thursday.
